My Advice for Conan O’Brien – Go To Fox!

It was just a little over a year ago when I wrote my opinions about NBC moving Jay Leno to the 10 PM time slot in my article titled “Has NBC Cut Off Their Nose to Spite Their Face?? Just to refresh your memory, here’s what I said:

“This also brings up the issue of the local affiliates, who currently have a scripted show leading up to their 11:00 PM local newscasts. If less people tune in for Leno, it may mean less people turning in for the local news afterwards. I’m sure they are less than thrilled with NBC right now, since it seems NBC just threw them under the bus.

I have a tendency to agree with Les Moonves that this move will only mean sunnier days and more viewers for CBS, and likely ABC as well. Think about this: two of NBC popular main stays are Law & Order and Law & Order SVU. Now, those viewers who used to watch those shows at 10:00 will likely still gravitate to another drama on another network. Then, NBC may find that when they pit these two shows up against other shows airing at 8:00 or 9:00 PM that are already well established, that they will draw less viewers for Law & Order and SVU than if they aired at 10:00 PM.”

I think my TV instincts are pretty good, and I knew that this whole mess was going to come back and bite NBC in the butt. It turned out to be true that the affiliates lost significant views after the Leno show. It came true that shows like Law & Order and Law & Order SVU suffered in viewership by being moved to earlier times and different days. It turned out to be true that CBS did see sunnier days as Leno gave CBS bigger ad revenues.

Over the weekend when NBC advised that they were moving Leno back to 11:30 for a half hour show, and Conan to 12:05, I felt vindicated. I also believe that the network has treated Conan O’Brien shabbily by still allowing him to be host of the Tonight Show, yet still having to follow Leno. As of this writing, nothing has been confirmed from Conan as yet whether he will play or take his ball and go home. The New York Times referred to the NBC mess as “In Leno Fiasco, a Window to the Midlife Crisis of NBC” where they write “No one thought the network television business would age gracefully, but NBC has turned two of its biggest stars into the equivalent of Jon and Kate: two wounded parties biding their time until the divorce comes through. By Friday night, Mr. O’Brien had a day to gain some perspective and ticked off a list of rumors, including a last one that sounded just about right: “NBC is going to throw me and Jay into a pit with sharpened sticks. The one who crawls out alive gets to leave NBC.”


My opinion is that Conan should get as far away from NBC as possible, and move over to the Fox TV network, which is in dire need of a late night show. Conan’s style of humor would fit the hip and edgy Fox television, and would provide formidable competition for Leno. It seems clear to me that as long as Jay Leno is breathing, NBC will never move him out. The fact that Leno was unable to draw enough viewers at an earlier time slot when many more people could be watching should be a clue that Leno’s style of humor is stiff and dated, and no longer a draw for viewers. In defense of Leno, it was probably a mistake for NBC to move him out of the Tonight Show in the first place. But NBC wanted to have its cake and eat it too by keeping both Leno and Conan. Now, NBC has egg on their face and possibly a new problem if Conan doesn’t want to play along. The handwriting seems to be on the wall for Conan – NBC likes Jay Leno more. NBC doesn’t deserve Conan, and I think it’s time for him to move on to those greener pastures that likely exist at Fox.


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The Jay Leno Show: Unoriginal, Uncompelling, Uninteresting

I know I said I wasn’t going to watch The Jay Leno Show. I was never a huge fan of Leno on the Tonight Show, so I didn’t watch that very much. But, I felt it only fair that if I was going to be critical of the move the NBC made by eliminating scripted shows in favor of the daily Leno show, I should at least watch one to see if it confirms my feelings. It did – I stand by my opinion that I think this move is not a good one in the long run for NBC.

After watching his first installment, I imagine that there will be a lot of tweaking and changing going on in the coming weeks, so maybe it will be worth another look about 3 months down the road – assuming NBC keeps it that long. After all, the network really painted themselves in the corner the minute they committed to 5 nights a week for this show, which is probably 4 nights too many.

His opening monologue didn’t strike me as being anything new or different than his Tonight Show monologues. In fact, Jay seemed too stiff and rehearsed in his opening comments on his new show. I am not sure what I expected – I think I expected no monologue. I found myself wondering how much Jay will be stealing the thunder of his later counterparts Conan O’Brien and the lifeless Jimmy Fallon by covering all the funny bits from the news for the day before the other two get their crack at it? Why watch Conan and Jimmy later to get their same take on the same news? If Jay’s show does well, it may bode bad news for the other two. One thing I was glad to hear Jay acknowledge his own feeling about his show promos when he said, “Let me explain what’s going on…This is not another annoying promo, this is the actual show…I apologize for my face being all over the place.” Yes, it was a tad much, wasn’t it? NBC was shameless in taking every chance they could to promote this new show, including numerous mentions on the Today Show.

The car wash number with Dan Finnerty and the Dan Band went on too long. It was funny for a short while, then it just made me want it to be over.

Enter Jerry Seinfeld, who admitted that, like me, he was also perplexed as to why he was asked to be the first guest when he hasn’t done a show in something like 11 years. Mind you, I watched Seinfeld a lot and always liked his show, but I am not sure if he would have been my first guest. While he and Jay talked, it seemed like they were both shouting in order to make sure they were being heard to audience in the cavernous studio, and their “interview” seemed too rehearsed and stiff. Again, nothing compelling to see here.

Leno’s faked Obama interview was also not a new concept, and I sense there will be some discussion today on "The View" about Jay referring to those hosts as the “loudest, shrillest voices.” This was another segment where the joke got old quickly and I felt it dragged on too long.

Jay also brought on the jerk of the day, Kayne “It’s All About Me” West, giving Kanye even more publicity for his rude behavior at the video awards show from two days ago. Jay asks the money question: “Let me ask you something. I was fortunate enough to meet your mom and talk with your mom a number of years ago. What do you think she would have said about this?” Kanye gives a long, long pause where he seems to be getting choked up, before he answers with what seemed to be a non-answer, saying he needs to take time off. Poor baby. He needs to grow up, but I don’t see that coming any time soon, since this is not Kanye’s first time around getting in trouble when opening his mouth. But Jay got what he wanted – the key sound bite from his show to be replayed on other networks. He and Kanye really are two peas in a pod when it comes to self-promotion. Kanye then went off to perform with Rihanna and Jay-Z, a musical number that wasn’t too bad but again it seemed to go on too long.

Jay finished the show with his funny headlines – umm, shouldn’t headlines be toward the “head” of the show and not the end? Jay used to do these on the Tonight Show, maybe he thought by moving them to the end of the show it would be more edgy and show how much the show is different from the Tonight Show. Personally, if he keeps this segment – I think it should be dropped – he should move it to the beginning and hopefully only do it once a week or so, if even that often.

A note to advertisers – since I recorded the show on my DVR, I passed through all your commercials.

If I had to grade Jay’s first outing, I would have to give it a C+. It was just average. There was nothing compelling to see, nothing new and different, nothing worth tuning in every night at 10 PM to watch, especially when there are other shows that are much more interesting to watch on other networks. It’s not even worth recording on my DVR and taking the time to pass over the commercials. Unless there is a major improvement, NBC better be thinking of a fall back position and getting new shows ready for that time slot next fall, if not sooner.


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The Tonight Show: Changing of the Guard

This Friday, Jay Leno will have his last show as host of The Tonight Show.

I say this is a good thing. I have always found Leno’s style to be stiff and unfunny. I rarely watched The Tonight Show as it bored me to tears. I never recorded it, either, unlike Late Night With Conan O’Brien, which I used to record frequently. Honestly, I don’t have the time any more for late night TV.

But Leno will still be in our faces in the fall – that is, if you want him to be. As NBC is planning on airing Leno five nights a week in the 10 PM time slot, Leno really won’t be going too far away from his Tonight Show time. What is concerning is that NBC is going to be using mediocre comedian to prop up its prime time 10:00 PM slot. Let’s be honest, NBC hasn’t been able to pull off a new show in that time slot for years. OK, let's be brutal - they haven't pulled off a sustainable hit in prime time at all. Frankly, NBC has done little to promote the shows it has in the 10 PM time slot now, like Law & Order and Law & Order SVU. If it weren’t for fans who keep the L&O franchise alive by sharing every little tidbit of information they can glean from other non-NBC sources, the L&O franchise would have tanked a long time ago.

But now, NBC seems to have run out of ideas for new dramas, and has decided to throw caution, and their network, to the wind by airing Jay Leno at 10:00 PM against shows like CSI Miami and CSI New York, which have been cleaning NBC’s clock for quite some time now. My opinion is that Leno is too bland to be able to consistently draw viewers to the 10 PM slot. I suspect that some may tune in initially just to see what it is like – but only if there is nothing better on the other networks. (Good luck with that, NBC.)

I suspect that Conan O’Brien will have a much better time in his new slot, unless he won’t be able to deliver his usual “unusual” comedy at the slightly earlier hour. I am thrilled that Conan is finally getting into a slot that will get him more exposure.

But, if/when Leno fails at the 10:00 PM time slot, what then for NBC? Is there anyone else or anything else waiting in the wings to replace Leno? I seriously doubt it. I sense NBC is a little too confident about Leno in this new time slot to even be thinking that the show could flop.

I haven’t decided yet if I am going to bother to watch. I think I may wait for the reports to come in for a few weeks to see if it is even worth my time. If I heard good press, I will be happy to give it a look. And if I like it, I will certainly eat my words and admit I was wrong. I don’t suspect the latter will be happening, though.


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Richard Belzer to NBC: You’re Desperate and Dying

Leave it to Law & Order SVU's Richard Belzer to come out and say what everyone else is thinking – and say it bluntly. On January 7, the LA Times reported that during Belzer’s participation in a PBS panel (talking about the late George Carlin), Belzer was asked his opinion of NBC's recent decision to place Jay Leno in the weekday 10:00 PM time slot in the fall, putting an end to 5 prime time hours of scripted programming. And he told it like it is, as he said he has a contract that renders him untouchable.

"I just think it’s a network that’s desperate…It’s the last gasp of a dying network, which can turn out to be brilliant financially. But in terms of writers, actors, producers and other people who work on shows, I think it’s a tragedy, frankly."

I only disagree with Belzer on one point – I don’t even think the move is brilliant financially. I can’t see NBC being able to sustain the number of viewers that it received with the 10 PM programming like Law & Order, Law & Order SVU, or even the departing ER. Sure, those shows cost a lot more to produce than a show like Leno’s, but they also likely commanded higher advertising dollars. And NBC will still have a lot of overhead to cover. If the network calculates or measures a "cost per employee" or "profit per employee", it would be interesting to see how those numbers are affected after this change is made. My projection is that cost per employee goes up, and profit goes down.

But I agree strongly with Belzer that this is a tragedy, maybe not because it would put writers, actors, et al. out of work, but that it may mark the death of creative dramatic programming for NBC. Everybody likes a good story. And everybody likes to see good actors in a good story. People like to have that time to watch some fictional show on television, maybe to take their minds off their own problems. But everyone has a limit, and even 5 days of Law & Order would get old after a while. OK – let me think about that – there was a time when NBC had a Law & Order franchise show on 3 days a week (Law & Order, Law & Order SVU, and Law & Order Criminal Intent). But when they tried to add in Law & Order Trial by Jury and Conviction, both new shows failed. I think it was simple overload, and maybe some Law & Order fatigue set in with the creative end of the franchise. Five days of a talk show at 10:00 PM when there are other choices on other networks would be worse than Law & Order fatigue, and could happen much faster. My opinion is that NBC's opinion of the draw of Jay Leno is inflated.

So, what does it say about a network like NBC that doesn’t have the talent or can’t afford to put together 5 extra hours of scripted programming? Like Belzer, I’d say they are dying.



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Has NBC Cut Off Their Nose to Spite Their Face?

Earlier this month I wrote about Tuesday being so crammed with programming that it was hard for me to fit it all in. NBC may have thrown another wrench into viewing patterns when, a few days later, NBC made the announcement that next fall, they would be filling the 10:00 PM time slot with a show hosted by Jay Leno. It didn’t take long for CBS’ head honcho Les Moonves to scoff at NBC’s actions, basically saying that he will be able to kick NBC’s butt at that time slot, thank you very much.

NBC may see this as an innovative move to change the look of television and save a bundle in the process. After all, they seem proud that it will cost them less money to produce Leno’s shows, even doing it 5 days a week, over a scripted drama. But NBC forgets a big fact here – if the show isn’t a big draw, it will also product a lot less in advertising revenue. They also forget that they just essentially opened the door wide for CBS and ABC to take commanding leads in that time slot, maybe even with mediocre dramas.

For me, since I am a very early riser, it is rare for me to be up past 10:00 PM as it is. I have always recorded my favorite shows at 10:00. But for a show like Leno’s, which NBC seems proud it will not be a good candidate to DVR because of the timely nature of the content, it also means that I won’t be setting my DVR to record any shows on NBC at 10:00 anymore. Despite the fact that advertisers bemoan DVRs as they let you pass through the commercials, I still have to SEE what is passing by my eyes as I forward through the commercials. I admit that some commercials seem to be done well enough that you can still get the idea of what is being advertised even as one zips through them. So even DVR commercials get some eyeballs, to a degree. And if NBC thinks that the 10:00 PM time slot just isn’t worth viewers eyes, and if they think less and less people are watching at that time anyway because people simply just want to get to bed, then why don’t they just turn over the time slot to the local affiliates for their news as Fox does? That would save them a bundle of money, wouldn’t it? From my perspective, NBC has made this change all about costs, and throwing Jay Leno into the mix is really just a stunt to try to grab whatever they can on the cheap. NBC also seems to be admitting that the don’t have a creative clue on how to come up with exciting programs for five hours a week to fill the 10:00 PM time slot. It’s almost too hard to believe.

Let’s not forget how this move could also sabotage the changeover to Conan O’Brien as host of the Tonight Show. A few years back, CNBC used to show recent reruns of Conan’s Late Night show, and I watched them every day. I grew to really like Conan and personally felt that his show was infinitely better that Leno’s. Sure, I tried to watch Leno a few times but I just can’t tolerate him. The thought of having him on at 10:00 PM every weeknight makes me feel as excited as I was hearing about Rosie O’Donnell and her failed variety show – which is not excited at all, in case you were wondering. In fact, both Rosie and Jay send me feeling from the TV, albeit for different reasons. But now, if people who watch Jay now at the late night hour can watch him at 10:00 PM, why stay up late to watch Conan?

This also brings up the issue of the local affiliates, who currently have a scripted show leading up to their 11:00 PM local newscasts. If less people tune in for Leno, it may mean less people turning in for the local news afterwards. I’m sure they are less than thrilled with NBC right now, since it seems NBC just threw them under the bus.

I have a tendency to agree with Les Moonves that this move will only mean sunnier days and more viewers for CBS, and likely ABC as well. Think about this: two of NBC popular main stays are Law & Order and Law & Order SVU. Now, those viewers who used to watch those shows at 10:00 will likely still gravitate to another drama on another network. Then, NBC may find that when they pit these two shows up against other shows airing at 8:00 or 9:00 PM that are already well established, that they will draw less viewers for Law & Order and SVU than if they aired at 10:00 PM. If they were looking to try to kill the Law & Order franchise, they may have just found the vehicle to do so. Dick Wolf is probably going crazy at the prospect.

If I turn out wrong about this move I’ll be the first to admit it. One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see how ABC and CBS structure their new fall lineup. I suspect that they are already working on the issue, anticipating dealing a knockout punch to NBC. After all, NBC already put themselves on the ropes.



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